Borough Report

Lambeth

538 determined applications · 25 wards · 8 areas · 57 conservation areas · 2023–2025

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Headline findings

43%
Refusal rate
184 of 425 decided small-site applications
Verified
73%
Mid-terrace refusals
Highest refusal rate of any site type
Verified
+31%
PTAL density premium
PTAL 6 sites achieve 135 u/ha vs 103 u/ha at PTAL 4–5
Verified
0
Appeals lodged
Appeal route entirely unused in dataset
Verified

Key findings

Verified Compression is modest: only 17.7% of schemes cut, average 1.7 units lost ›
Unlike boroughs with 30%+ compression rates, Lambeth officers compress less aggressively. 36 of 203 approved schemes were reduced during determination. Design buffers of N+1 provide adequate protection. n=203 approved applications.
Verified Mid-terrace carries 73% refusal risk — end-of-terrace is safest at 11% ›
Site type is a statistically significant predictor of refusal (p=0.0038). Mid-terrace schemes face 73% refusal, while end-of-terrace achieves just 11.4%. Backland sites sit at 52%, conversions at 47%, and demolition & replacement at 32%. Invest in pre-app and design quality for mid-terrace to overcome default officer resistance.
Verified PTAL 6 sites achieve 31% higher density than PTAL 4–5 ›
PTAL 6 sites achieve 135 u/ha median density vs 103 u/ha at PTAL 4–5, a 31% premium. The effect is strongest for conversions (141 u/ha vs 81 u/ha). Mann-Whitney U test: p=0.014. Higher PTAL genuinely unlocks more units per site. n=259.
Indicative Pre-app is associated with lower approval in Lambeth (selection bias) ›
Counter-intuitively, pre-app engagement in Lambeth correlates with 29% approval vs 56% without pre-app. This likely reflects selection bias: complex, difficult sites self-select into pre-app. Pre-app adds ~67 days to determination. Budget pre-app only for genuinely complex or contested proposals. p=0.079 (not statistically significant).
Verified Conservation areas do not penalise density in Lambeth ›
Despite having 57 conservation areas, there is no statistically significant density penalty for sites within them. Borough-wide: 89 u/ha in CAs vs 100 u/ha outside, but p=0.60 (not significant). In Streatham specifically, the penalty is negligible (+4.2%). Conservation status in Lambeth is not the barrier it appears elsewhere. n=530.
Verified 29 officers handle all small sites — top 5 handle 42% of cases ›
Officer assignment materially affects outcome. Approval rates range from 20% to 100% depending on the officer. The top 5 officers (Brown, Onabanjo, Hodgkinson, Harper, Leftwich) handle 42% of all cases. The report maps every officer’s caseload and approval rate. n=538.
Verified Space standards non-compliance strongly predicts refusal (p<0.0001) ›
Applications where space standards are discussed in the officer report face a 71% refusal rate, vs 19% where not discussed. This is the single strongest refusal predictor in the Lambeth dataset.
Verified Conservation area status significantly increases refusal rate (p<0.0001) ›
Sites in conservation areas face a 65% refusal rate vs 39% outside. While conservation status doesn’t significantly affect density, it is a strong refusal predictor. Design quality is the mechanism: officer scrutiny intensifies in CAs even though the density they approve is comparable.

Plus additional findings covering amenity impact, housing mix, unit sizing, ward-level patterns, and determination time. Each graded Robust, Moderate, Indicative, or Anecdotal.

What you get

The full report

  • 40+ page report (HTML & PDF) with 21+ evidence-graded findings
  • Density matrix by site type with P20–P75 ranges
  • PTAL-adjusted density lookup table
  • Viability model with cliff chart and sensitivity analysis
  • Ward-level and area-level approval rate maps
  • Refusal reason analysis with frequency data
  • Conservation area risk assessment (57 CAs)
  • Case officer patterns across 29 officers

Lambeth-specific insights

  • Mid-terrace risk quantification: 73% refusal rate
  • PTAL density premium analysis (p=0.014)
  • Conservation area density — no significant penalty
  • Pre-app selection bias analysis
  • CIL across 4 zones: £200–£500/m² borough + £80 MCIL2

Decision tools

  • Before-you-bid and before-you-submit checklists
  • One-page Market Snapshot for quick reference
  • Underlying data in Excel for your own analysis

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