Borough Report

Lewisham

279 determined applications · 19 wards · 8 areas · 28 conservation areas · 2023–2025

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Headline findings

47%
Refusal rate
131 of 279 decided — among London’s highest
Verified
−44%
10th unit cliff
Per-unit residual collapses at AH threshold
Verified
36%
Schemes compressed
Avg 2.3 units cut during determination
Verified
2+
HO3 threshold
AH contributions from just 2 units
Verified

Key findings

Verified The 6-unit sweet spot: £140k/unit residual, delegated, zero committee exposure ›
Six units delivers the highest per-unit residual land value with delegated determination and zero committee threshold exposure. Per-unit residual drops at 7 units (committee finance cost) and collapses at 10 units (full AH obligation). Target 6-unit schemes for maximum per-unit land value.
Verified 10th unit trap: adding one unit (9→10) destroys 44% of per-unit residual ›
At 10 units, full affordable housing obligations trigger a step-change in scheme economics. The per-unit residual collapses by 44%. Structure bids around 9-unit maximum to avoid the catastrophic viability cliff. This is the single most important number in every land bid.
Verified HO3 starts at 2 units — among London’s lowest AH thresholds ›
Lewisham’s Local Plan (adopted July 2025) requires 35% affordable housing contributions from just 2 units via in-lieu financial contribution. On-site provision required for 10+ units. Most boroughs trigger at 10 units. This must be factored into every land bid from the outset. Policy HO3.
Verified 36% of schemes compressed — propose N+2 with removable design options ›
35.8% of approved schemes are compressed during determination, with an average loss of 2.3 units (median 1). This is among the highest compression rates in our dataset. Strategy: propose 2 additional units above your target with design flexibility for removal to protect your appraisal. n=95 approved applications.
Verified Pre-app lifts approval from 29% to 45% (+16 points) ›
Pre-application engagement lifts approval rate by 16 percentage points (45.1% vs 28.9%). Determination time is identical with or without pre-app (median 56 days). The trade is certainty, not speed. With a 47% base refusal rate, pre-app is essential for managing risk. n=175 with pre-app, n=38 without.
Verified 47% refusal rate — 1 in 2 small-site schemes refused, zero appeals ›
Nearly half of all 279 decided applications are refused — among the highest rates for small sites in any London borough. Zero appeals were lodged across the entire dataset, meaning the appeal route is entirely unused. Mitigants: pre-app engagement + rigorous space standards compliance.
Verified Density does not predict refusal (p=0.42) ›
Borough-wide, proposing more units does NOT increase refusal risk (p=0.42, Mann-Whitney U). Refusals are driven by design quality, amenity impact, and process factors — not unit count. The practical takeaway: propose aggressively at the P75 benchmark without materially increasing refusal risk. n=279.
Verified One officer handles 21% of all cases: Amanda Ghani (67 applications) ›
33 officers handle the small sites pipeline, but Amanda Ghani alone handles 67 applications (20.6% of the total). The top 10 officers handle 73% of all cases. Officer assignment materially affects outcome. The report maps every officer’s caseload and approval rate. n=324.

Plus additional findings covering conservation area effects, ward-level patterns, committee vs delegated benchmarks, amenity impact, and determination time. Each graded Robust, Moderate, Indicative, or Anecdotal.

What you get

The full report

  • 42-page report (HTML & PDF) with 21+ evidence-graded findings
  • Density matrix by site type with P20–P75 ranges
  • PTAL-adjusted density lookup table
  • Viability model with cliff chart and sensitivity analysis
  • Ward-level and area-level approval rate maps
  • Refusal reason analysis with frequency data
  • Conservation area risk assessment (28 CAs)
  • Case officer patterns across 33 officers

Lewisham-specific insights

  • HO3 impact analysis: AH from 2+ units
  • 47% refusal rate mitigants and strategies
  • 36% compression rate — N+2 strategy
  • Density paradox: density does not predict refusal (p=0.42)
  • 2-zone CIL: £100/m² (North) / £70/m² (South) + £80 MCIL2

Decision tools

  • Before-you-bid and before-you-submit checklists
  • One-page Market Snapshot for quick reference
  • Underlying data in Excel for your own analysis

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